[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 May 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 14 09:46:05 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z MAY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 14 MAY - 16 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 May: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 May 15 May 16 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low during the UT day.
Solar wind speed gradually decreased from around 480 km/s
to 350 km/s during the UT day today. The Bz component of
the IMF stayed between +/-2 nT for most parts of the day.
Solar wind stream may strengthen again from 15 May due to
a coronal hole coming into geoeffective position around this
time. Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels
for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 May: Mostly quiet with
isolated unsettled periods.
Estimated Indices 13 May : A K
Australian Region 3 11111111
Darwin 2 11100112
Townsville 13 33322333
Learmonth 2 11010111
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 01000000
Casey(Ant) 4 22211021
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 May : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 2112 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 May 6 Quiet
15 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
16 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions with some unsettled periods
were observed over the last 24 hours. Mostly quiet conditions
on 14 and quiet to unsettled conditions on 15 and 16 May may
be expected.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 May Normal Normal Normal
15 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
16 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal today. Appearance
of sporadic E-layers affected HF conditions on low and some
mid latitude locations. Mostly normal conditions on low and
mid latitudes are expected for the next three days and some
MUF depressions and degradations in conditions may be possible
on high latitude circuits on 15 and 16 May due to a possible
enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels on these days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 May 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values to depressed
by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values to depressed
by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to depressed
by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 May 13 Near predicted monthly values
15 May 12 Near predicted monthly values to depressed 10%.
16 May 12 Near predicted monthly values to depressed 10%.
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed in the
Aus/NZ regions today with some periods of minor to mild
depressions in MUFs. Nearly similar HF conditions may be
expected in this region on 15 and 16 May. Mostly normal HF
conditions may be expected on 14 May in the region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 May
Speed: 473 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 170000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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