[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 May 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 15 09:51:20 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z MAY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 15 MAY - 17 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 May: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 May 16 May 17 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low during the UT day today.
Solar wind speed varied between 320 and 380 km/s during the
UT day. The Bz component of the IMF stayed between +/-4 nT
for most parts of the day. Solar wind stream may gain some
strength on 15 and 16 May due to a coronal hole. Solar activity
is expected to remain at very low levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 May : A K
Australian Region 3 12110211
Darwin 2 11100111
Townsville 12 23322333
Learmonth 2 11110210
Canberra 0 00000100
Hobart 1 01000110
Casey(Ant) 6 23210221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 May : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 May : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1011 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
16 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
17 May 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions were observed over the last
24 hours. Mostly quiet to unsettled on 15 and 16 May and mostly
quiet conditions on 17 May may be expected.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
16 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
17 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal today. Appearance of
sporadic E-layers affected communications conditions on low and
some mid latitude locations. Minor to mild degradations in HF
conditions may be possible on high latitude circuits on 15
and 16 May due to possible enhancements in geomagnetic activity
levels on these days. Otherwise HF conditions are expected to
remain mostly normal on most other locations for the next three
days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 May 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values to depressed by
20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values to depressed
by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 May 8 Near predicted monthly values to depressed 10%.
16 May 8 Near predicted monthly values to depressed 10%.
17 May 10 Near predicted monthly values to depressed 10%.
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed in the
Aus/NZ regions today with some periods of minor to mild
depressions in MUFs. Nearly similar HF conditions may be
expected in this region on 15 and 16 May. Mostly normal HF
conditions may be expected on 17 May in the region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 May
Speed: 419 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 88100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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