[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 May 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 13 09:49:04 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z MAY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 13 MAY - 15 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 May: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 May 14 May 15 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low during the UT day.
As expected, the solar wind stream is going strong. Solar
wind speed gradually increased from around 400 km/s to 500
km/s by 0800UT today and then stayed at this level until
the time of this report (2330UT).The Bz component of the
IMF stayed between +/-5 nT for most parts of the day. The
expected coronal hole effect seems to be eventuating. Solar
wind stream may remain strengthened for the next three days
due to the presence of small sized coronal holes in
geoeffective positions. Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 12 May : A K
Australian Region 5 12123111
Darwin 4 12122101
Townsville 15 33333333
Learmonth 5 12123101
Canberra 1 01012000
Hobart 3 11023000
Casey(Ant) 7 23213111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 May :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 May : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 2222 1331
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 May 10 Moslty quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
possible on high latitudes.
14 May 10 Moslty quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
possible on high latitudes.
15 May 10 Moslty quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
possible on high latitudes.
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions observed
over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions on most
locations with some possibility of isolated active periods
on high latitudes may be expected for the next three days
due to the presence of small coronal holes in geoeffective
positions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
14 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
15 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal today. Appearance
of sporadic E-layers affected communications conditions on
low and some mid latitude locations. Mostly normal conditions
on low and mid latitudes are expected for the next three days
and some MUF depressions and degradations in conditions may be
possible on high latitude circuits due to a possible continued
enhancement in geomagnetic activity levels during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 May 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 May 14 Near predicted monthly values to depressed 10%.
14 May 14 Near predicted monthly values to depressed 10%.
15 May 14 Near predicted monthly values to depressed 10%.
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed in the
Aus/NZ regions today with some periods of minor to mild
depressions in MUFs. Nearly similar HF conditions may be
expected for the next three days in this region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 May
Speed: 387 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 59000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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