[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 May 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 12 09:48:42 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z MAY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 12 MAY - 14 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 May: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 May 13 May 14 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 73/9 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low during the UT day.
Solar wind speed gradually increased from around 340 km/s
to 420 km/s by mid day today and then decreased to around
380 km/s by 2300UT. The increase seems to have been caused
by a solar sector boundary crossing. The Bz component of
the IMF stayed between +/-5 nT for most parts of the day.
Solar wind stream may remain strengthened for the next three
days due to the presence of small sized coronal holes in
geoeffective positions. Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 May: Mostly quiet on most
locations with isolated unsettled periods on high latitudes.
Estimated Indices 11 May : A K
Australian Region 5 22222111
Darwin 5 22222111
Townsville 15 33333333
Learmonth 6 32222111
Canberra 1 11111000
Hobart 3 12111110
Casey(Ant) 8 33321121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 May : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1101 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 May 9 Moslty quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
possible on high latitudes.
13 May 8 Moslty quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
possible on high latitudes.
14 May 8 Moslty quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
possible on high latitudes.
COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions on most
locations with some possibility of isolated active periods
on high latitudes may be expected for the next three days
due to the presence of small coronal holes in geoeffective
positions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
13 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
14 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal today. Appearance
of sporadic E-layers affected communications conditions on
low and some mid latitude locations. Mostly normal conditions
on low and mid latitudes are expected for the next three days
and some MUF depressions and degradations in conditions may be
possible on high latitude circuits due to a possible enhancement
in geomagnetic activity levels during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 May 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 May 14 Near predicted monthly values to depressed 10%.
13 May 14 Near predicted monthly values to depressed 10%.
14 May 14 Near predicted monthly values to depressed 10%.
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed in the
Aus/NZ regions today with some periods of minor to mild
depressions in MUFs. Nearly similar HF conditions may be
expected for the next three days in this region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 May
Speed: 348 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 35800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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