[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 March 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 19 10:18:15 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z MARCH 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 19 MARCH - 21 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Mar: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Mar 20 Mar 21 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Only minor B-class flares were observed over the past
24 hours. Solar wind speed declined steadily from 460 to 380
km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field remained
mildly Northwards. There was no obvious solar wind evidence of
the CME observed on Mar 14.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 22111121
Darwin 3 21101111
Townsville 5 22211122
Learmonth 4 22011121
Canberra 1 11000001
Hobart 4 22111121
Casey(Ant) 8 23321122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 7 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 1421 0013
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Mar 6 Quiet
20 Mar 4 Quiet
21 Mar 4 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet at low to mid latitudes
with isolated periods of Unsettled conditions observed at high
latitudes. Expect mostly Quiet conditions next three days. There
is a chance of isolated Unsettled periods at high latitudes day
one
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Mar Normal Normal Normal
20 Mar Normal Normal Normal
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Mar 35
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Mar 30 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
20 Mar 30 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
21 Mar 30 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
COMMENT: Significant MUF enhancements observed throughout the
region over the past 24 hours, particularly local night. Expect
generally enhanced conditions next three days with the possibility
of brief disturbances Antarctic region day one.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.69E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Mar
Speed: 467 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 137000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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