[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 March 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 18 10:29:09 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z MARCH 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 18 MARCH - 20 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Mar: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 87/30 87/30 88/32
COMMENT: NOAA active region 1054 continued in gradual decline
over the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed remains elevated under
the influence of a high speed coronal hole wind stream. The Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field remained mildly
northwards. Evidence of the CME observed on Mar 14 should arrive
by day one of the forecast period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 13211112
Darwin 4 13210102
Townsville 5 13211112
Learmonth 5 23211111
Canberra - --------
Hobart 5 13211112
Casey(Ant) 12 -4431112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Mar :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 64 (Active)
Hobart 19 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1010 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Mar 6 Quiet
20 Mar 4 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was mostly Quiet at low to mid
latitudes with a period of Unsettled conditions around 04UT.
Unsettled to Active conditions were observed at high latitudes,
becoming Quiet to Unsettled later in the UT day. Expect Quiet
to Unsettled periods next two days. There is a chance of brief
Active intervals at high latitudes day one with the possible
arrival of the CME observed on Mar 14. Conditions should decline
to generally Quiet by day three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
19 Mar Normal Normal Normal
20 Mar Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Mar 32
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Mar 20 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 20%.
19 Mar 20 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 20%.
20 Mar 25 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
COMMENT: Significant MUF enhancements observed throughout the
region today, particularly 06-09UT. Expect generally enhanced
conditions next three days with the possibility of brief disturbances
Antarctic region day one.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Mar
Speed: 392 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 106000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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