[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 March 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 20 10:22:39 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z MARCH 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 20 MARCH - 22 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Mar:  84/26


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Mar             21 Mar             22 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    84/26              84/26              84/26
COMMENT: NOAA active region 1054 produced a B7.0 class flare 
with associated Type II radio sweep at 18/2311. Solar wind speed 
remained steady at around 380 km/s and the Bz component of the 
IMF showed moderate (+-5nT) fluctuations about neutral over the 
second half of the UT day. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 19 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21111122
      Darwin               4   21110122
      Townsville           4   11111221
      Learmonth            4   21111122
      Canberra             0   00000011
      Hobart               4   11111122
      Casey(Ant)           8   33311122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   2300 0122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Mar     4    Quiet 
21 Mar     4    Quiet 
22 Mar     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet with Unsettled intervals 
observed at high latitudes only. Expect mostly Quiet conditions 
next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Mar    46

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:   7

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Mar    35    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10 
                to 30%. 
21 Mar    35    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10 
                to 30%. 
22 Mar    35    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10 
                to 30%. 
COMMENT: Significant MUF enhancements observed throughout the 
region over the past 24 hours, especially Equatorial/N Aus regions. 
Expect generally enhanced conditions next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Mar
Speed: 422 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:    60800 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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