[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 March 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 6 10:43:57 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z MARCH 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 06 MARCH - 08 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Mar: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Mar 07 Mar 08 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the the last 24 hours
with only minor B-class events. Very Low solar activity is expected
over the next 3 days. Solar wind speed ranged between 390km/s
and 440km/s over the UT day. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field ranged between +/-4nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 12222111
Darwin 4 11121112
Townsville 5 12222111
Learmonth 4 21122111
Canberra - --------
Hobart 4 11222111
Casey(Ant) 9 23322222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 12 (Quiet)
Canberra NA
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 2320 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Mar 5 Quiet
07 Mar 5 Quiet
08 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Mostly Quiet conditions are expected over the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Mar Normal Normal Normal
07 Mar Normal Normal Normal
08 Mar Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Mar 28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Mar 25 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 20%.
07 Mar 25 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 20%.
08 Mar 25 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 20%.
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for Australian
and NZ regions over the last 24 hours. Enhanced MUF's due to
consistently strong EUV from current active sunspots on disc
notably during local day for Northern AUS/Equatorial regions
and local night for Southern AUS/NZ regions. Sporadic E observed
for Northern AUS and Equatorial regions between 08UT-12UT. Mostly
normal HF conditions are expected for the next 3 days with continued
enhanced periods for low to mid latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Mar
Speed: 439 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 106000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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