[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 March 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 7 10:38:15 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z MARCH 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 07 MARCH - 09 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Mar: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Mar 08 Mar 09 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the the last 24 hours
with only minor B-class events. LASCO imagery from 2118UT indicates
a probable CME produced on the east limb. Very Low solar activity
is expected over the next 3 days. Solar wind speed was ~380km/s
over the UT day. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field ranged between +/-5nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 22111112
Darwin 2 11100112
Townsville 4 21111122
Learmonth 3 21011112
Canberra - --------
Hobart 4 22111112
Casey(Ant) 8 33-21122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra NA
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0011 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Mar 5 Quiet
08 Mar 7 Quiet
09 Mar 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Mostly Quiet conditions are expected over the next three days.
Possible Unsettled periods for mid to high latitudes on 08Mar-09Mar
due to CME efects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Mar Normal Normal Normal
08 Mar Normal Normal Normal
09 Mar Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Mar 32
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 55% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Mar 25 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 20%.
08 Mar 25 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 20%.
09 Mar 25 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 20%.
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for Australian
and NZ regions over the last 24 hours. Enhanced MUF's of 20%
due to consistently strong EUV from current active sunspots observed
during local night for Northern AUS/Equatorial regions as well
as local day and night for Southern AUS/NZ regions. Notable sporadic
E observed for Northern AUS and some Southern AUS/NZ regions
between 07UT-14UT. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for
the next 3 days with continued enhanced MUF's of 10%-20% for
low to mid latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Mar
Speed: 414 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 77500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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