[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 March 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 5 10:46:01 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z MARCH 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 05 MARCH - 07 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Mar: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Mar 06 Mar 07 Mar
Activity Low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 82/23 82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the the last 24 hours. Region
1052 was the source of a C2.2 flare at 1611UT as well as B6.0
at 1331UT. Region 1053 also produced a B4.3 flare at 1756UT.
Further B-class and C-class events are possbile from these active
regions over the next 3 days, with Solar Activity expected to
range from Very Low to Low. Solar wind speed increased from 380km/s
at 0000UT to be ~440km/s at the time of this report. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +/-5nT over
the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 04 Mar : A K
Australian Region 7 23212212
Darwin 5 2-212212
Townsville 5 12212211
Learmonth 5 22112211
Canberra 4 121-----
Hobart 6 13212212
Casey(Ant) 10 34-22212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Mar :
Darwin 5 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1202 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Mar 5 Quiet
06 Mar 5 Quiet
07 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet for low to mid latitudes
and Unsettled for high latitudes over the last 24 hours. Mostly
Quiet conditions are expected over the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Mar Normal Normal Normal
06 Mar Normal Normal Normal
07 Mar Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Mar 34
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Mar 35 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
06 Mar 30 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
07 Mar 30 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions across Australian and NZ regions
continued to be elevated compared with predicted monthly values
due to consistently strong EUV from current active sunspots on
disc. Some notable sporadic E between 09UT-12UT for mid latitudes
and depressed conditions for Antarctic regions between 00UT-12UT.
Enhanced conditions are expected for all Australian and NZ regions
over the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Mar
Speed: 425 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 116000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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