[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 March 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 4 10:54:07 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z MARCH 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 04 MARCH - 06 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Mar: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Mar 05 Mar 06 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the the last 24 hours.
Regions 1051, 1052, and 1053 remain relatively unchanged, continue
to have simple magnetic structure and are not expected to produce
any significant activity. Solar Activity is expected to be Very
Low for the next 3 days. Solar wind speed decreased from 440km/s
to be ~380km/s at the time of this report. Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +/-5nT over the
UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 03 Mar : A K
Australian Region 7 21122322
Darwin 7 21122322
Townsville 8 22222322
Learmonth 8 31222322
Canberra 3 10022211
Hobart 8 21132322
Casey(Ant) 12 3--33322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 0002 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Mar 5 Quiet
05 Mar 5 Quiet
06 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled over the
last 24 hours. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected over the
next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Mar Normal Normal Normal
05 Mar Normal Normal Normal
06 Mar Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Mar 27
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Mar 25 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
05 Mar 25 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
06 Mar 25 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions in the Northern Australian and
Equatorial regions continued to be elevated compared with predicted
monthly values due to strong EUV from current sunspot regions
on the disc. Mostly normal ionospheric support for Southern AUS/NZ
regions and Antarctic regions, with some notable sporadic E between
08UT-11UT for mid latitudes. Similar enhanced conditions are
expected for Australian and NZ regions over the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.30E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Mar
Speed: 381 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 73400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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