[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 March 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 3 10:48:26 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z MARCH 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 03 MARCH - 05 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Mar:  79/19

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Mar             04 Mar             05 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              82/23

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the the last 24 hours. 
Active regions 1051, 1052, and 1053 continue to have simple magnetic 
structure and are not expected to produce any significant activity. 
Solar Activity is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days 
with the possibility of Low levels mainly due to region 1045 
(numbered on previous rotation). Does not show spots at this 
time, however did appear to be responsible for a long duration 
B6.6 class x-ray flare on 01/2226UT with associated CME on east 
limb. The CME is not expected to be geo-effective. Solar wind 
speed was at the nominal levels ranging from 370 to 430km/s and 
is expected to remain in this range. Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field was southward to -6nT from 02/0830UT 
to 02/1330UT resulting in weak reconnection with the Earth's magnetic 
field, particular noted at Macquarie Island showing active levels 
during this period. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 02 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   12122112
      Darwin               4   21112112
      Townsville           5   11122212
      Learmonth            4   12022112
      Canberra             2   01022001
      Hobart               6   12123212
      Casey(Ant)           6   23122112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            17   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              12   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   1111 2212     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Mar     6    Quiet 
04 Mar     4    Quiet 
05 Mar     4    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was predominantly at Quiet levels 
over the last 24 hours with isolated cases of Unsettled to Active 
conditions. Mostly Quiet conditions expected over the next three 
days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
02 Mar    34

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:   7

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Mar    30    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10 
                to 30%. 
04 Mar    30    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10 
                to 30%. 
05 Mar    30    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10 
                to 30%. 

COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions in the Australian/NZ region were 
elevated compared with predicted monthly values due to strong 
EUV from the sunspot regions on the disc. Expect similar conditions 
over the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Mar
Speed: 348 km/sec  Density:    6.0 p/cc  Temp:    55700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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