[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 March 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 3 10:48:26 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z MARCH 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 03 MARCH - 05 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Mar: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Mar 04 Mar 05 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the the last 24 hours.
Active regions 1051, 1052, and 1053 continue to have simple magnetic
structure and are not expected to produce any significant activity.
Solar Activity is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days
with the possibility of Low levels mainly due to region 1045
(numbered on previous rotation). Does not show spots at this
time, however did appear to be responsible for a long duration
B6.6 class x-ray flare on 01/2226UT with associated CME on east
limb. The CME is not expected to be geo-effective. Solar wind
speed was at the nominal levels ranging from 370 to 430km/s and
is expected to remain in this range. Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field was southward to -6nT from 02/0830UT
to 02/1330UT resulting in weak reconnection with the Earth's magnetic
field, particular noted at Macquarie Island showing active levels
during this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 12122112
Darwin 4 21112112
Townsville 5 11122212
Learmonth 4 12022112
Canberra 2 01022001
Hobart 6 12123212
Casey(Ant) 6 23122112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 17 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 12 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1111 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Mar 6 Quiet
04 Mar 4 Quiet
05 Mar 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was predominantly at Quiet levels
over the last 24 hours with isolated cases of Unsettled to Active
conditions. Mostly Quiet conditions expected over the next three
days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Mar Normal Normal Normal
04 Mar Normal Normal Normal
05 Mar Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Mar 34
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Mar 30 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
04 Mar 30 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
05 Mar 30 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions in the Australian/NZ region were
elevated compared with predicted monthly values due to strong
EUV from the sunspot regions on the disc. Expect similar conditions
over the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Mar
Speed: 348 km/sec Density: 6.0 p/cc Temp: 55700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list