[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 March 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 2 10:54:47 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z MARCH 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 02 MARCH - 04 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Mar: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Mar 03 Mar 04 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 84/26 84/26
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the the last 24 hours
with only a B6.6 class flare at 2306UT. Active regions 1050 and
1051 continue to have simple magnetic structure and are not expected
to produce any significant activity over the next three days.
New regions 1052 and 1053 were numbered. Solar Activity is expected
to be Very Low for the next 3 days with the possibility of Low
levels. Solar wind speed was at the nominal level of 350km/s
from 00UT till 13UT after which it increased to 400km/s due to
the onsent of a recurrent coronal hole high speed solar wind
stream. Bz ranged between +/-5nT from 00UT till 13UT and then
increased in magnitude, ranging from -5nT to 10nT at the time
of this report.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Mar : A K
Australian Region 7 22222222
Darwin 5 21112222
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 6 22122221
Canberra 2 20102001
Hobart 5 21212121
Casey(Ant) 10 33332212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Mar :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0010 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Mar 6 Quiet
04 Mar 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels over the last
24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions expected over the next
24 hours due to coronal hole effects with possible Active periods
for mid to high latitudes. Mostly Quiet levels expected for
03Mar-04Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
03 Mar Normal Normal Normal
04 Mar Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Mar 35
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Mar 30 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
03 Mar 30 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
04 Mar 30 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions in the Australian/NZ region were
elevated compared with predicted monthly values due to strong
EUV from the sunspot regions on the disc. Expect similar conditions
over the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.10E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Feb
Speed: 333 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 44800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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