[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 June 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 18 09:49:52 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z JUNE 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 18 JUNE - 20 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jun: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Jun 19 Jun 20 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
New region 1082 was the source of three B class events, highest
being a B5.0 flare at 1033UT. Solar wind speed remains elevated
and ranged between 510km/s-540km/s over the UT day. IMF Bz varied
between +/-4nT. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low for
the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 Jun : A K
Australian Region 6 22321121
Darwin 6 22320122
Townsville 12 3333223-
Learmonth 6 22321121
Canberra 4 11320011
Hobart 4 12320011
Casey(Ant) 8 33221122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jun :
Darwin 10 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 54 (Unsettled)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Hobart 48 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 19 3433 3344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Jun 5 Quiet
20 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled Geomagnetic conditions observed over
the last 24 hours with some Active periods for high latitudes.
Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected for the 18Jun with
mostly Quiet conditions expected for 19Jun-20Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
19 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
20 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Jun 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Jun 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
19 Jun 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
20 Jun 15 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 12 was issued on 17 June
and is current for interval 17-18 June. Depressed MUFs observed
for Equatorial regions during local day and night. Enhanced conditions
for Southern AUS/NZ regions during local night and continued
disturbed conditions for Antarctic regions. Notable sporadic
E for Northern AUS regions. Similar conditions are expected for
the next 3 days, with MUF depressions of 10%-20% for low to mid
latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jun
Speed: 544 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 256000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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