[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 June 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 19 09:46:53 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z JUNE 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 19 JUNE - 21 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jun: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Jun 20 Jun 21 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Region 1082 was the source of two minor B-class events. Solar
wind speed remained elevated and ranged between 500km/s-560km/s
in the first half of the UT day, declining to be 480km/s at the
time of this report. The solar wind speed is expected to decline
further over the next 24 hours as the effects of the recent coronal
hole diminish. IMF Bz varied between +/-2nT. Solar activity is
expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Jun : A K
Australian Region 6 22221221
Darwin 4 22111210
Townsville 13 33332332
Learmonth 5 22221210
Canberra 1 11000100
Hobart 1 11010110
Casey(Ant) 10 33321-31
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jun :
Darwin 19 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 44 (Unsettled)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Hobart 41 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 2332 1232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Jun 7 Quiet
20 Jun 5 Quiet
21 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the
last 24 hours with some Unsettled periods for high latitudes.
Quiet conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Jun 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Jun 5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
20 Jun 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
21 Jun 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs observed for Northern AUS/Equatorial
and Southern AUS/NZ regions during local day. Disturbed periods
for Antarctic regions with otherwise normal HF conditions. Notable
sporadic E for Northern AUS/Equatorial region, in particular
for IPS sounding stations Cocos Is. at 10UT-13UT and Townsville,
Brisbane,Norfolk Is. between 04UT-07UT. Similar conditions are expected
for the next 3 days, with MUF depressions of 10%-20% for low to mid latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jun
Speed: 526 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 158000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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