[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 June 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 17 09:51:05 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z JUNE 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 17 JUNE - 19 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jun: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jun 18 Jun 19 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed remained elevated over the UT day at ~550km/s
due to the current high speed solar wind stream from a
transequatorial geoeffective coronal hole. IMF Bz varied between
+/-7nT with some sustained southward periods. Solar activity is
expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 16 Jun : A K
Australian Region 14 33333332
Darwin 14 33333332
Townsville 16 33343333
Learmonth 15 33333432
Canberra 10 22333321
Hobart 14 22334431
Casey(Ant) 14 334232-3
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jun :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gnangara 42 (Unsettled)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 1223 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Jun 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled Geomagnetic conditions observed over
the last 24 hours for low to mid latitudes with isolated Active
periods. Unsettled to Active conditions for high latitudes with
an isolated Minor Storm period in the latter half of the UT day.
Quiet to Unsettled conditions expected for the next 2 days with
isolated Active periods for mid to high latitudes. Mostly Quiet
conditions expected for 19Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
18 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
19 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jun 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jun 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
18 Jun 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
19 Jun 15 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs observed for Northern AUS/Equatorial
regions during local day. Enhanced conditions for Southern AUS/NZ
regions during local night and disturbed conditions for Antarctic
regions. Notable sporadic E for low to mid latitudes. Ionospheric
support expected to be below monthly averages across the region
due to reduced EUV ionisation/weak sunspot activity. Similar
conditions are expected for the next 3 days, with MUF depressions
of 10%-20% for low to mid latitudes during local day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jun
Speed: 393 km/sec Density: 6.1 p/cc Temp: 123000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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