[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 June 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 13 09:53:51 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z JUNE 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 13 JUNE - 15 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jun: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.0 0057UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jun: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 76/14 74/11
COMMENT: Solar wind speed decreased from 370 to 330 km/s during
the last 24 hours and is expected to remain in this range for
the next two days. On 15 June expect the solar wind to increase
due to a large coronal hole, extending into both the north and
south hemispheres, reachng the geo-effective location on the
solar disc. IMF Bz varied between +/-2nT over the UT day, 12
June. The solar activity was Moderate over the last 24 hours
due to NOAA numbered region 1081(N22W59) producing an M2.0 x-ray
flare peaking at 0057UT and associated with a type II high speed
sweep (1300km/s). Expect solar activity to be at Low levels for
the next three days with a possibility of another M-class flare.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Jun : A K
Australian Region 2 11110011
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 9 23322222
Learmonth 1 11010010
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 00010000
Casey(Ant) 2 12100011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 2211 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jun 4 Quiet
14 Jun 4 Quiet
15 Jun 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Expect Quiet conditions for the next two days and on
day three, 15 June, expect the geomagnetic activity to increase
to unsettled levels with isolated periods active to minor storm
levels, particularly at high latitudes due to an increase in the
solar wind speed.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jun Normal Normal Normal
14 Jun Normal Normal Normal
15 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jun 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jun 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
14 Jun 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
15 Jun 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions were below monthly averages across
the region generally due to reduced EUV ionisation as the sunspot
activity is weak. Noted spread F at the Hobart station during the
local night time hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jun
Speed: 416 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 76800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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