[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 June 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 14 09:40:36 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z JUNE 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 14 JUNE - 16 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jun: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0539UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jun: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jun 15 Jun 16 Jun
Activity Low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 74/11 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate for the UT day, 13 June,
due to region 11079 (S23W90) producing a M1.0/SF flare peaking
at 13/0539UT with an associated type II sweep (700km/s). SOHO
C3 imagery also showed a CME on the north west limb first noted
on the 13/0942UT image. This CME was most likely related to region
11081 (N24W77) activity due to its location on the limb. Neither
event is expected to be geo-effective. Several additional B and
C class x-ray flares were observed from both regions 11079 and
11081 during the UT day. Solar wind speed increased from 320
to 450 km/s during the last 24 hours and is presently around
410 km/s. Midway through the UT day on 15 June expect the solar
wind to increase due to a large coronal hole, extending into
both the north and south hemispheres, reachng the geo-effective
location on the solar disc. IMF Bz varied between +5/-4nT during
the last 24 hours. Expect solar activity to be at Low levels
today and tomorrow, 14-15 June, and Very Low 16 June.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Jun : A K
Australian Region 4 12221111
Darwin 4 12221011
Townsville 11 23332223
Learmonth 4 12222110
Canberra 1 01111000
Hobart 2 01221000
Casey(Ant) 5 13221110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jun :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 3 1000 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jun 4 Quiet
15 Jun 14 Unsettled to Active
16 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 9 was issued on 13 June and
is current for interval 15 June only. Expect Quiet conditions
today, 14 June, and initially Quiet changing to Unsettled to
Active conditions on 15 June. Returning to Mostly quiet near
the end of the UT day on 16 June. During 15-16 June there may
be a chance of isolated periods of Minor Storm conditions at
high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jun Normal Normal Normal
15 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
16 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jun 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jun 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
15 Jun 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
16 Jun 5 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions were below monthly averages across
the region generally due to reduced EUV ionisation as the sunspot
activity is weak.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jun
Speed: 354 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 39200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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