[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 June 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 12 09:53:54 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z JUNE 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 12 JUNE - 14 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jun: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Jun 13 Jun 14 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 73/9
COMMENT: Solar wind speed decreased from 440 to 370 km/s during
the last 24 hours and is expected to remain in this range or
slightly below for the next three days. IMF Bz varied between
+2 and -4 nT over the UT day, 11 June. The solar activity was
very low over the last 24 hours with several B-class flares produced
from emerging flux region 1081(N22W43). Expect solar activity
to increase slightly as region continues to grow with moderate
chance of C-class flares. SOHO C2 imagery shows a CME just north
on the east limb commencing at approximately 0930UT, 11 June.
It is not expected to be geoeffective and appears to be ejected
from the back side.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 12111111
Darwin 3 12101112
Townsville 11 33322322
Learmonth 2 11012101
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 2 11011101
Casey(Ant) 3 12111110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2212 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Jun 5 Quiet
13 Jun 5 Quiet
14 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Expect Quiet conditions for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jun Normal Normal Normal
13 Jun Normal Normal Normal
14 Jun Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Jun 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Jun 10 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
13 Jun 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
14 Jun 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions were below monthly averages across
the region generally due to reduced EUV ionisation as the sunspot
activity is weak. Expect depressions to decrease slightly as
with an slight increase in EUV levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jun
Speed: 439 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 103000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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