[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 June 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 11 09:33:58 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z JUNE 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 11 JUNE - 13 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jun: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun
Activity Low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar wind speed increased again to nearly 450 km/s
over the UT day as the coronal hole changed shape to a twin stripe
feature with a more latitudinal spread. Vsw is currently declining
to quiet levels. ned. IMF Bz varied north and south at higher
magnitude (10nT) early in the UT day probably inducive for effects
on the geomagnetic field. Sunspot activity is Very Low and quieter
than th elast two days, still predominantly from the more magnetically
complex AR1078. The STEREO-B spacecraft has observed a prolonged
Bz southwards period, estimated to meet Earth on 13-14th June.
Some models predict a possibly related solar sector boundary
crossing around the 12th or 13th.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Jun : A K
Australian Region 4 22221011
Darwin 4 22221001
Townsville 11 33332222
Learmonth 4 22221001
Canberra 0 01000000
Hobart 2 12111001
Casey(Ant) 6 33221011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jun :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 18 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1111 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jun 2 Quiet
12 Jun 5 Quiet
13 Jun 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Solar wind speed increased again to nearly 450 km/s
over the UT day as the coronal hole changed shape to a twin stripe
feature with a more latitudinal spread. Vsw is currently declining
to quiet levels. IMF Bz varied north and south at higher magnitude
(10nT) early in the UT day probably inducive for effects on the
geomagnetic field. These effects combined to cause Unsettled
conditions, particularly at polar latitudes, in the first half
of the UT day. The STEREO-B spacecraft has observed a prolonged
Bz southwards period, estimated to meet Earth on 13-14th June.
Some models predict a possibly related solar sector boundary
crossing around the 12th or 13th.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jun Normal Normal Normal
12 Jun Normal Normal Normal
13 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jun 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jun 7 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
12 Jun 3 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
13 Jun 3 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions were below monthly averages across
the region generally, due to reduced EUV ionisation as the sunspot
activity is weak. The STEREO-B spacecraft has observed a prolonged
Bz southwards period, estimated to meet Earth on 13-14th June.
Some models predict a possibly related solar sector boundary
crossing around the 12th or 13th. This may result in moderately
disturbed geomagnetic conditions and suppressed ionospheric
conditions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jun
Speed: 326 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 39400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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