[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 June 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 10 09:18:00 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z JUNE 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 10 JUNE - 12 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jun: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 70/5
COMMENT: Solar wind speed decreased to 320 km/s over the UT day
as the effect of the recurrent coronal hole waned. IMF Bz varied
north and south at low magnitudes not inducive for merging with
the geomagnetic field. Sunspot activity is predominantly AR1078
providing a few B-class X-ray flares and type III radio bursts.
The STEREO-B spacecraft has observed a prolonged Bz southwards
period, estimated to meet Earth on 13-14th June and probably
associated with a solar sector boundary.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Jun : A K
Australian Region 4 12211111
Darwin 3 11210111
Townsville 9 23322222
Learmonth 3 12210101
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 11000000
Casey(Ant) 5 23211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1010 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Jun 5 Quiet
11 Jun 2 Quiet
12 Jun 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind speed decreased to 320 km/s over the UT day
as the effect of the recurrent coronal hole waned. IMF Bz varied
north and south at low magnitudes not inducive for merging with
the geomagnetic field, and activity was generally Quiet. The
STEREO-B spacecraft has observed a prolonged Bz southwards period,
estimated to meet Earth on 13-14th June and probably associated
with a solar sector boundary predicted in models.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jun Normal Normal Normal
11 Jun Normal Normal Normal
12 Jun Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Jun 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Jun 14 near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to
10%
11 Jun 11 near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to
10%
12 Jun 3 near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to
20%
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions were below monthly averages across
the region generally, due to reduced EUV ionisation as the sunspot
activity is weak although AR1078 is increasing. The STEREO-B
spacecraft has observed a prolonged Bz southwards period, estimated
to meet Earth on 13-14th June and probably associated with a
solar sector boundary predicted in models. This may result in
moderately disturbed geomagnetic and ionospheric conditions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jun
Speed: 403 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 66700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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