[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 June 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 9 13:07:02 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPOR - CORRECTION
ISSUED AT 09/0310Z JUNE 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 09 JUNE - 11 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jun: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 70/5
COMMENT: Solar wind speed increased to 420 km/s over the UT day
due to a recurrent coronal hole. This hole is thin in solar longitude
however, so effects should only last for a day or two. IMF Bz
varied north and south at low magnitudes ,not inducive for merging
with the geomagnetic field. Sunspot activity is minimal with
AR1076 rotating off the disc and AR1078 providing a few B-class
X-ray flares and type III radio bursts. The STEREO-B spacecraft
has observed a prolonged Bz southwards period, estimated to meet
Earth on 13-14th June and probably associated with a solar sector
boundary predicted in models.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Jun : A K
Australian Region 4 21111121
Darwin 3 -21-1111
Townsville 11 33322232
Learmonth 3 21111111
Canberra 0 10000000
Hobart 1 11000010
Casey(Ant) 5 21211131
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jun :
Darwin 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 3101 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Jun 7 Quiet
10 Jun 5 Quiet
11 Jun 2 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind speed increased to 420 km/s over the UT day
due to a recurrent coronal hole. The geomagnetic field did not
respond strongly however, possibly as IMF Bz varied north and
south at low magnitudes, not inducive for merging with the geomagnetic
field, and activity was only occasionally Unsettled. This hole
is thin in solar longitude, so effects should only last for a
day or two. The STEREO-B spacecraft has observed a prolonged
Bz southwards period, estimated to meet Earth on 13-14th June
and probably associated with a solar sector boundary predicted
in models.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jun Normal Normal Normal
10 Jun Normal Normal Normal
11 Jun Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Jun 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Jun 14 near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to
10%
10 Jun 14 near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to
10%
11 Jun 11 near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to
10%
COMMENT: Frequencies were down across the region generally, due
to reduced EUV ionisation as the sunspot groups decline or rotate
off the solar disc. Solar wind speed increase due to a recurrent
coronal hole slightly increased geomagnetic activity which also
contributed in depressing frequencies. This hole is thin in solar
longitude however, so effects should only last for a day or two.
Spread F is prevalent at several stations, particularly at night,
and likely to continue for a day. The STEREO-B spacecraft has
observed a prolonged Bz southwards period, estimated to meet
Earth on 13-14th June and probably associated with a solar sector
boundary predicted in models. This will probably result in moderately
disturbed geomagnetic and hence ionospheric conditions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jun
Speed: 400 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 37400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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