[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 June 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 7 09:31:47 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z JUNE 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 07 JUNE - 09 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jun: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 65/0
COMMENT: The solar wind speed ranged from around 490 to 405 km/s
and is currently about 450 km/s. The north-south component of
the IMF varied between about +4 to -5 nT. Solar wind parameters
are expected to become disturbed on day one due to the effects
of a recurrent coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Jun : A K
Australian Region 4 11121122
Darwin 4 11121122
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 4 21021122
Canberra 1 00020001
Hobart 3 11021111
Casey(Ant) 5 22121122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jun :
Darwin 7 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2220 0113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Jun 10 Quiet, becoming unsettled with isolated active
levels.
08 Jun 7 Quiet to unsettled with chance of isolated active
levels in the first half of the period.
09 Jun 5 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jun Fair-normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
08 Jun Normal Normal Normal
09 Jun Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Jun 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed to 30% 00, 02, 05, 07-12 and 20-22 UT. Near
predicted monthly values at other times. Spread F
observed 09-16 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly 15-30% depressed at Darwin. Near predicted
monthly values to 20% depressed at Townsville. Spread
F observed 09-21 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values with occasional
depressions to 20%. Depressions of 15-30% at Hobart
07-14 UT. Spread F observed at Brisbane and Hobart
during night hours. No data for Christchurch and 00-19
UT at Norfolk Is.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly 15-35% depressed.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
08 Jun 5 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
09 Jun 5 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
COMMENT: Spread F likely to affect night time communications.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jun
Speed: 478 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 68500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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