[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 June 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 6 09:35:07 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z JUNE 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 06 JUNE - 08 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jun: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: The solar wind speed ranged from around 540 to 450 km/s
and is currently about 470 km/s. The north-south component of
the IMF varied between about +/-4 nT. LASCO and STEREO A imagery
show a CME event at around 1156 UT on 5 June which does not appear
to be Earth directed. Solar wind parameters are expected to become
disturbed on day two due to the effects of a recurrent coronal
hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Jun : A K
Australian Region 4 22210111
Darwin 3 12200111
Townsville 5 22211122
Learmonth 5 32110122
Canberra 0 01100000
Hobart 2 12200011
Casey(Ant) 7 33211122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jun :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 18 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 20 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 16 5424 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Jun 5 Quiet
07 Jun 10 Quiet to unsettled
08 Jun 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Isolated active levels on day two.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jun Normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jun Normal Normal Normal
07 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
08 Jun Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Jun 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with occasional
depressions to 30% at 02, 07, 16-17 and 22 UT. Some
night spread F observed.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 30%
00-02, 10-16 and 21 UT at Darwin and 09-10 UT at
Townsville. Spread F observed at Townsville 11-20 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Occasional depressions
to 25%. Spread F observed during night hours. Sporadic
E observed at Hobart 12-15 UT. No Christchurch data.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly 10 to 30% depressed.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Jun 15 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
07 Jun 15 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
08 Jun 5 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jun
Speed: 560 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 146000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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