[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 June 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 5 09:31:23 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z JUNE 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 05 JUNE - 07 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jun: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: The solar wind speed ranged from around 520 to 600 km/s
and is currently about 525 km/s. The north-south component of
the IMF varied between about +6 and -7 nT. STEREO A and B imagery
show CME events at around 0239 and 1209 UT on 4 June; neither
appear to be Earth directed. Solar wind parameters should return
to normal over the next two days before becoming disturbed on
day three due to the effects of a recurrent coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jun: Quiet to unsettled
with isolated active levels.
Estimated Indices 04 Jun : A K
Australian Region 9 33332111
Darwin 9 33232112
Townsville 12 34332222
Learmonth 11 43332112
Canberra 5 23231000
Hobart 8 33242000
Casey(Ant) 11 33333212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jun :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 17 (Quiet)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Hobart 7 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 13 1224 3133
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jun 6 Quiet
06 Jun 5 Quiet
07 Jun 10 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Isolated active levels on day three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jun Fair-normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jun Normal Normal Normal
06 Jun Normal Normal Normal
07 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jun 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 20%
02-03 and 15-17 UT. Spread F observed 12-17 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
01-07 and 14-17 UT. Spread F observed at Townsville
12-19 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 20%
mostly during daytime. Spread F observed during night
hours. No data for Christchurch.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed 15-40%.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jun 5 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
06 Jun 15 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
07 Jun 15 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
COMMENT: Spread F likely to affect night time communications.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jun
Speed: 485 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 128000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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