[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 June 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 8 09:13:52 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z JUNE 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 08 JUNE - 10 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jun:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Jun             09 Jun             10 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2
COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined from around 450 to 350 km/s 
over the UT day. IMF Bz north-south was mildly southwards with 
magnitude less than 5nT for most of the day, inducive for merging 
with the geomagnetic field. Solar wind speed is expected to rise 
on the 8th due to a recurrent coronal hole. This hole is thin 
in solar longitude however, so effects should only last for a 
day or two. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 07 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22111111
      Darwin               3   21111111
      Townsville          11   33232232
      Learmonth            5   22112121
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               -   --------
      Casey(Ant)           6   33211111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jun : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            10   (Quiet)
      Hobart              15   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7   2211 1223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Jun     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
09 Jun     7    Quiet 
10 Jun     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: IMF Bz north-south was mildly southwards with magnitude 
less than 5nT for most of the day, inducive for merging with 
the geomagnetic field and causing slightly Unsettled conditions. 
Solar wind speed is expected to rise on the 8th due to a recurrent 
coronal hole, causing Unsettled conditions. This hole is thin 
in solar longitude however, so effects should only last for a 
day or two. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Jun    14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Jun     5    5 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
09 Jun    14    near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to 
                10% 
10 Jun    14    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IMF Bz north-south was mildly inducive for merging with 
the geomagnetic field, causing Unsettled geomagnetic conditions, 
depressing frequencies at near equatorial and polar latitudes, 
and not counterbalanced by EUV ionisation as the sunspot groups 
decline. Solar wind speed is expected to rise on the 8th due 
to a recurrent coronal hole, causing Unsettled geomagnetic conditions,
which should slightly depress HF frequencies. This hole is thin 
in solar longitude however, so effects should only last for a 
day or two. Spread F is prevalent at several stations, particularly 
at night, possibly due to Unsettled geomagnetic activity and 
so likely to continue for a day or two. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jun
Speed: 445 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:    50600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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