[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 June 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 8 09:13:52 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z JUNE 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 08 JUNE - 10 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jun: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined from around 450 to 350 km/s
over the UT day. IMF Bz north-south was mildly southwards with
magnitude less than 5nT for most of the day, inducive for merging
with the geomagnetic field. Solar wind speed is expected to rise
on the 8th due to a recurrent coronal hole. This hole is thin
in solar longitude however, so effects should only last for a
day or two.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 Jun : A K
Australian Region 4 22111111
Darwin 3 21111111
Townsville 11 33232232
Learmonth 5 22112121
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart - --------
Casey(Ant) 6 33211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jun :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 10 (Quiet)
Hobart 15 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 2211 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jun 9 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Jun 7 Quiet
10 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: IMF Bz north-south was mildly southwards with magnitude
less than 5nT for most of the day, inducive for merging with
the geomagnetic field and causing slightly Unsettled conditions.
Solar wind speed is expected to rise on the 8th due to a recurrent
coronal hole, causing Unsettled conditions. This hole is thin
in solar longitude however, so effects should only last for a
day or two.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
09 Jun Normal Normal Normal
10 Jun Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jun 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jun 5 5 to 20% below predicted monthly values
09 Jun 14 near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to
10%
10 Jun 14 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IMF Bz north-south was mildly inducive for merging with
the geomagnetic field, causing Unsettled geomagnetic conditions,
depressing frequencies at near equatorial and polar latitudes,
and not counterbalanced by EUV ionisation as the sunspot groups
decline. Solar wind speed is expected to rise on the 8th due
to a recurrent coronal hole, causing Unsettled geomagnetic conditions,
which should slightly depress HF frequencies. This hole is thin
in solar longitude however, so effects should only last for a
day or two. Spread F is prevalent at several stations, particularly
at night, possibly due to Unsettled geomagnetic activity and
so likely to continue for a day or two.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jun
Speed: 445 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 50600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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