[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 June 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 2 09:29:52 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z JUNE 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 02 JUNE - 04 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jun: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jun 03 Jun 04 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: The solar wind speed declined to end the period at around
520 km/s while the north-south component of the IMF varied between
about +6 and -7 nT. STEREO A and B imagery detected a CME event
around 2054 UT on 31 May which appears Earth directed. Solar
wind parameters are expected to remain disturbed for days one
and two of the forecast period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jun: Quiet to active
Estimated Indices 01 Jun : A K
Australian Region 11 42222332
Darwin 10 32222332
Townsville 16 43333333
Learmonth 13 42222342
Canberra 8 32222321
Hobart 8 32222321
Casey(Ant) 14 43323--2
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jun :
Darwin 11 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Hobart 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 May : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 16 3343 3323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jun 10 Quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods.
03 Jun 10 Quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods.
04 Jun 8 Quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods.
COMMENT: The effects of the CME on 31 May are expected to impact
the geomagnetic field on day two of the forecast period, possibly
around 0900 UT.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jun Fair-normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
03 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
04 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jun 0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
12-16 UT and enhancements to 30% 09-10 UT. Spread F
16-21 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed 15-30%.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly 15-30% depressed with some night spread F.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly 15-30% depressed. Night spread F observed.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly 30-40% depressed.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jun 5 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
03 Jun 5 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
04 Jun 5 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
COMMENT: Spread F likely to affect night time communications.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 May
Speed: 563 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 241000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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