[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 June 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 3 09:34:21 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z JUNE 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 03 JUNE - 05 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jun: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jun 04 Jun 05 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 73/9 72/8
COMMENT: The solar wind speed continued to decline to end the
period around 450 km/s while the north-south component of the
IMF varied between about +4 and -5 nT. STEREO A and B imagery
show a CME event occurring on the far side around 1354 UT on
2 June. Solar wind parameters are expected to remain somewhat
disturbed for day one of the forecast period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jun: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 02 Jun : A K
Australian Region 5 22211212
Darwin 4 12211211
Townsville 8 23222222
Learmonth 5 22211212
Canberra 1 01101100
Hobart 4 12202111
Casey(Ant) 9 33-21223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Hobart 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 4321 2242
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jun 10 Quiet to unsettled
04 Jun 8 Quiet to unsettled
05 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The effects of the CME on 31 May are expected to impact
the geomagnetic field on day one of the forecast period, possibly
around 0900 UT. Isolated active periods possible in the latter
half of day one, and day two.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jun Fair-normal Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
04 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
05 Jun Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jun 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 35%
03-10 and 13 UT. Sporadic E observed 15-20 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values 00-01 and 08-18 UT,
otherwise depressed to 30%.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly 15-30% depressed with night spread F. No
Townsville data 09-23 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed. Night
spread F observed at all stations.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly 15-30% depressed.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jun 15 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
04 Jun 5 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
05 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
COMMENT: Spread F likely to affect night time communications.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:27%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jun
Speed: 555 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 162000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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