[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 May 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 1 09:36:46 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z MAY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 01 JUNE - 03 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 May:  72/8

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Jun             02 Jun             03 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: The solar wind speed ranged between about 500 and 630 
km/s. The Bz component of the IMF varied between about +5 and 
-7 nT. Solar parameters are expected to remain disturbed for 
the next few days due to the passage of the coronal hole wind 
stream. New region 1076 (S19E07) was numbered today. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 May: Quiet to unsettled 

Estimated Indices 31 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   23333222
      Darwin              10   23332222
      Townsville          15   33333333
      Learmonth            -   --------
      Canberra             6   12222222
      Hobart              10   22333222
      Casey(Ant)           -   --------
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 May : 
      Darwin              10   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice_Springs       NA
      Gnangara            NA
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart              58   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             22                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             19   3342 2454     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Jun    10    Quiet to unsettled 
02 Jun     8    Quiet to unsettled 
03 Jun     8    Quiet to unsettled 

COMMENT: Isolated active levels possible at higher latitudes. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 May      Normal         Normal-poor    Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jun      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
02 Jun      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
03 Jun      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
31 May    -1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 35%
      03-10 UT and depressions to 30% 12-16 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
      Enhancments to 30% 05-09 UT at Darwin. Spread F
      observed 13-20 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly 15-35% depressed. F region trace not observed
      on ionograms at times during the period 10-20 UT at
      Canberra, Hobart and Sydney due to depressed state of
      the F region. Spread F observed at Brisbane 10-18
      UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly depressed 15-40%.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  24

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Jun     5    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. 
02 Jun     5    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. 
03 Jun     5    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 May
Speed: 435 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:   122000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and 
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to 
receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list