[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 July 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 27 09:54:03 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z JULY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JULY - 29 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jul: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Jul 28 Jul 29 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 84/26 84/26
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with
only minor B-class activity from Region 1089 which remains
magnetically simple. The solar wind speed (Vsw) ranged between
400km/s and 480km/s over the UT day due to the recurrent coronal
hole high speed solar wind stream (HSSWS). Bz ranged between
+/-5nT with no prolonged southward periods. Solar activity is
expected to be Very Low for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 22210112
Darwin 4 22111112
Townsville 6 22221222
Learmonth 3 12210012
Canberra 1 11100011
Hobart 2 12100011
Casey(Ant) 6 22220222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jul :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 16 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 15 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 3111 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Jul 12 Unsettled
28 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Jul 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet for mid to low latitudes
over the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed Vsw is slightly elevated
at ~470 km/sec due to the recurrent coronal hole high speed solar
wind stream (HSSWS), but the earths geomagnetic field has not
responded strongly yet. Expect Unsettled conditions over the
next 24 hours with possible Active periods along with Minor Storm
periods for high latitudes. Quiet to Unsettled conditions expected
for 28Jul-29Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Jul 21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Jul 25 near predicted monthly values
28 Jul 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
29 Jul 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Depressed MUF's during local day and night for some
Northern AUS/Equatorial regions with otherwise normal conditions
for all regions over the last 24 hours. Mostly normal ionospheric
support expected for the next 24 hours, with no further decline
in X-ray flux should see MUF's remain near monthly averages.
Possible increase in geomagentic activity from recurrent coronal
hole high speed solar wind speed over the next 24-48 hours may
result in MUF depressions of 10%-20% for Northern AUS/Southern
AUS/NZ regions and disturbed conditions for Antarctic.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jul
Speed: 422 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 90300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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