[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 July 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 28 09:53:17 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z JULY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JULY - 30 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jul: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Jul 29 Jul 30 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 82/23 82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with region
1089 producing a C2.2 class flare at 0424UT along with numerous
B-class events. The solar wind speed (Vsw) has increased over
the last 24 hours due to the recurrent coronal hole high speed
solar wind stream, from 450km/s at 00UT to be 600km/s at the
time of this report. Bz ranged between +/-5nT for the majority
of the UT day, with with maximums of 9nT and -8nT and notable
southward periods. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low
for the next three days with the slight chance of C-class events
from region 1089.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 27 Jul : A K
Australian Region 14 23333333
Darwin 13 23333332
Townsville 13 23332333
Learmonth 14 23333333
Canberra 13 23333332
Hobart 14 23343332
Casey(Ant) 19 34433--3
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jul :
Darwin 17 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 49 (Unsettled)
Hobart 60 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2211 1213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Jul 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled over the
last 24 hours with Active periods for high latitudes. Solar wind
speed (Vsw) increased from 450km/s at 00UT to a maximum of ~650km/s
at 23UT due to the recurrent coronal hole high speed solar wind
stream (HSSWS). Expect Quiet to Unsettled conditions for the
next 24-48 hours with possible Active periods for mid to high
latitudes. Quiet conditions expected for 30Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
29 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
30 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Jul 27
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Jul 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
29 Jul 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
30 Jul 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Depressed MUF's during local day and night for some
Northern AUS/Equatorial regions with otherwise normal conditions
for all regions over the last 24 hours. MUF depressions of 10%-20%
for Northern AUS/Southern AUS/NZ regions and disturbed conditions
for Antarctic expected for the next 2 days due to increased
geomagnetic activity, with improving conditions expected for 30Jul.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jul
Speed: 434 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 87800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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