[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 July 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 26 09:37:01 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z JULY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JULY - 28 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jul: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Jul 27 Jul 28 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 84/26 82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with
only one small B-class X-ray flare from Region 1089 which continues
to decay and remains magnetically simple, with only a slight
chance of a producing a C-class flare. The solar wind speed Vsw
rose steadily from ~350km/s to 450 km/sec as the Earth passed
through the srongest part of the recurrent coronal hole high
speed solar wind stream (HSSWS). There were no prolonged strong
Bz southward periods.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Jul : A K
Australian Region 6 22212221
Darwin 5 22111222
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 5 22111221
Canberra 3 11102121
Hobart 4 11102221
Casey(Ant) 10 33322131
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jul :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 2110 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Jul 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet ant mid and low
latitudes over the last 24 hours. The solar wind speed Vsw rose
steadily from ~350km/s to 450 km/sec as the Earth passed through
the srongest part of the recurrent coronal hole high speed solar
wind stream (HSSWS) but the geomagnetic field has not responded
strongly yet. Expect Unsettled conditions in the next 48 hours
due to this higher Vsw. Polar latitudes had occasional Unsettled
and Minor Storm periods even though there were no prolonged IMF
Bz periods so these were probably caused by the continuous north-south
inversioins and elevated Vsw.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
27 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
28 Jul Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Jul 32
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Jul 25 near predicted monthly values
27 Jul 25 near predicted monthly values
28 Jul 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: Enhanced MUF's during local night for Southern AUS/NZ
and NE Equatorial. MUFs remained mostly at or slightly above
monthly medians despite slowly declining X-ray flux from shrinking
solar region 1089. Enhanced solar wind speed over the next 24-48
hours may cause Unsettled geomagnetic conditions which may slightly
suppress MUFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jul
Speed: 377 km/sec Density: 6.6 p/cc Temp: 68800 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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