[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 July 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 25 09:41:59 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z JULY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JULY - 27 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jul: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jul 26 Jul 27 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 84/26 82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with
only minor B-class events. Region 1089 continues to decay and
remains magnetically simple, with a slight chance of a producing
a C-class flare. The solar wind speed Vsw was ~380km/s between
00U-12UT and then fell to be 360km/s up till the time of this
report. The north-south Bz component of the IMF ranged between
+8nT and -5nT over the UT day with notable southward periods
between 15UT-23UT. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low
for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 21101221
Darwin 3 21101211
Townsville 6 22211222
Learmonth 4 21111221
Canberra 1 11000111
Hobart 1 11100110
Casey(Ant) 5 12201222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jul :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 2221 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jul 6 Quiet
26 Jul 9 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Jul 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Quiet conditions are expected for 25Jul and Quiet to Unsettled
for 26Jul. Anticipated arrival of a coronal hole high speed solar
windstream on 27Jul expected to result in Unsettled to Active
conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jul 21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jul 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
26 Jul 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
27 Jul 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Depressed MUF's during local night for Northern
AUS/Equatorial regions observed over the last 24 hours.
Enhanced conditions for Southern AUS/NZ regions during local night.
Either disturbed HF conditions or enhanced periods for Antarctic
regions. GOES satellite indicates a decline in x-ray flux levels
which may see average MUF's decline and T indicies fall below
monthly averages over the next few days. MUF depressions of
10%-20% expected for Northern AUS/Equatorial regions and
possibly for Southern AUS/NZ regions for the next 3 days with
otherwise normal ionospheric support.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jul
Speed: 378 km/sec Density: 8.5 p/cc Temp: 49800 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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