[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 July 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 24 09:53:05 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z JULY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JULY - 26 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jul: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Jul 25 Jul 26 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 83/24 81/22 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with
only minor B-class events from region 1089, the largest being
a B9.3 event at 1523UT. This region continues to decay and remains
magnetically simple, with the slight chance of a producing a
C-class flare. The solar wind speed Vsw was 360km/s at 00UT and
climbed to ~420km/s at 12UT before returning to 360km/s at the
time of this report. Solar wind is expected to increase over
the next 24 hours due to coronal hole effects. The north-south
Bz component of the IMF ranged between +/-5nT over the UT day
with only brief southerly excursions. Solar activity is expected
to be Very Low for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 23 Jul : A K
Australian Region 7 12321222
Darwin 6 22221222
Townsville 9 23322222
Learmonth 7 12321222
Canberra 4 12211111
Hobart 4 02212111
Casey(Ant) 8 23321212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jul :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1111 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Jul 9 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Jul 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet over the last
24 hours with Unsettled to isolated Active conditions for high
latitudes. Unsettled conditions are expected for the next 3 days
due to coronal hole effects, with possible Active periods for
mid to high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
26 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Jul 21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Jul 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
25 Jul 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
26 Jul 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Depressed MUF's during local day for Northern AUS/Equatorial
regions observed over the last 24 hours. Enhanced conditions
for Southern AUS/NZ regions during local night. Otherwise near
monthly normal conditions for all regions due to adequate EUV
and x-ray flux levels. MUF depressions of 10%-20% expected for
Northern AUS/Equatorial regions and possibly for Southern AUS/NZ
regions for the next 3 days with otherwise normal ionospheric
support. Possible disturbed conditions for Antarctic regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jul
Speed: 351 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 42000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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