[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 July 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 23 09:41:45 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z JULY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JULY - 25 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jul: 88/32
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jul 24 Jul 25 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 88/32 88/32 88/32
COMMENT: Region 1089 produced several mid and high B-class flares
and 1087 produced a B-flare before rotating off the disc. AR1089
is currently medium sized and magnetically simple (beta) and
decreased slightly in size and complexity in the last 24 hours,
so C-flaring is possible but not very likely. The solar wind
speed Vsw raised slightly to 370 km/sec and appears to have stabilised
as the long thin coronal hole remains geoeffective and should
be so for 3-4 days. The north-south Bz component of the IMF was
south for ~12 hours early in the day but only -2nT and not strongly
conducive to merging. Bz is currently oscillated north and south.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 11121111
Darwin 4 11221112
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 3 11121111
Canberra 1 01020000
Hobart 1 10021000
Casey(Ant) 4 22111111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 2201 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly only Quiet at mid and
equatorial latitudes even though the solar wind speed was at
370 km/sec from the long thin coronal hole. The coupling between
solar wind and geomagnetic field appears to be weak as it is
near solstice when the geometry is not favourable. Vsw appears
to have stabilised and as the coronal hole is long and thin,
it should stay at this level 3-4 days. The north-south Bz component
of the IMF was south for ~12 hours early in the day but only
-2nT and not strongly conducive to merging so polar geomagnetic
activity was only slightly Unsettled. Bz is currently oscillating
north and south but so far this is not increasing polar geomagnetic
activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
24 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
25 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jul 28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jul 28 Near predicted monthly values
24 Jul 27 near predicted monthly values
25 Jul 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: Ionisation and MUFs have remained near monthly median
levels due to AR1089 EUV and x-ray flux. MUFs should remain near
monthly medians for at least a couple of days, then slightly
decreasing when the geomagnetic activity subsides after the corinal
hole passage.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jul
Speed: 338 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 42900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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