[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 July 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 22 09:39:57 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z JULY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JULY - 24 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jul: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Jul 23 Jul 24 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Region 1089 has taken over as the main source of activity
from 1087 but both regions produced B-class flares. AR1089 is
currently medium sized and magnetically simple (beta) but growing.
Region 1087 is close to rotating off the disc. The solar wind
speed Vsw raised slightly to 350 km/sec as the leading edge of
a thin coronal hole becomes geoeffective. Vsw should rise steadily
over the next 24 hours to moderate levels. The north-south Bz
component of the IMF oscillated north and south, not conducive
to merging with the geomagnetic field. STEREO-B spacecraft has
not indicated any upstream significant Bz southward events.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 22111111
Darwin 3 12111111
Townsville 6 22212222
Learmonth 3 22111101
Canberra 1 11000110
Hobart 1 11001110
Casey(Ant) 4 22211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 2121 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Jul 12 Unsettled
23 Jul 12 Unsettled
24 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet at mid and equatorial
latitudes as the solar wind speed was at avergage levels, albeit
rising to 350 km/sec as a thin coronal hole becomes geoeffective.
Vsw should rise steadily over the next 24 hours to moderate levels
and commensurate rise in magnetic activity to Unsettled and possibly
Active. The north-south Bz component of the IMF oscillated
north-south, not conducive to merging with the geomagnetic field but the
oscillations increased polar magnetic activity to Unsettled.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
23 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
24 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Jul 29
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Jul 30 Near predicted monthly values
23 Jul 30 Near predicted monthly values
24 Jul 25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Ionisation and MUFs have increased to near monthly median
levels due to AR1089 EUV and x-ray flux and Unsettled geomagnetic
activity. MUFs should remain near monthly medians for at least
a couple of days due to AR1089, slightly decreasing when the
geomagnetic activity subsides after the corinal hole passage.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jul
Speed: 302 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 26800 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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