[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 July 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 21 09:40:25 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z JULY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JULY - 23 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jul: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jul 22 Jul 23 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Region 1089 has taken over as the main source of activity
from 1087, and has raised the background X-ray flux. 1089 produced
several B-class and one low C-class X-ray flares. It is currently
medium sized and magnetically simple (beta - not prone to M/X
flaring). Region 1087 is close to rotating off the disc. The
solar wind speed Vsw raised slightly to 330 km/sec as the leading
edge of a thin coronal hole becomes geoeffective. Vsw should
rise steadily over the next 24-48 hours to moderate levels (~400
km/sec). The north-south Bz component of the IMF was mainly northward,
not conducive to merging with the geomagnetic field, apart from
a southward turning 04-08UT. STEREO-B spacecraft has not indicated
any upstream significant Bz southward events.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 21211111
Darwin 4 21211111
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 6 22221122
Canberra 2 10211100
Hobart 2 10211100
Casey(Ant) 4 12210022
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jul :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1001 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jul 5 Quiet
22 Jul 12 Unsettled
23 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet at mid and equatorial
latitudes as the solar wind speed was at avergage levels, albeit
rising to 330 km/sec as the leading edge of a thin coronal hole
becomes geoeffective. Vsw should rise steadily over the next
24-48 hours to moderate levels (~400 km/sec) and commensurate
rise in magnetic activity to Unsettled and possibly Active. The
north-south Bz component of the IMF was mainly northward, not
conducive to merging with the geomagnetic field, apart from a
southward turning 04-08UT which caused broef Unsettled polar
conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jul Normal Normal Normal
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
23 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jul 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jul 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
22 Jul 20 Near predicted monthly values
23 Jul 22 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Nominal conditions with occasionally slightly lower
ionisation and maximum frequencies due to the relatively modest
ionising EUV and X-ray radiation from AR1089, although it's X-ray
flux is greater than yesterday. Expected to continue for a 24
hours before moderate geomagnetic activity raises frequencies
to near monthly medians for ~2 days. Equatorial regions showed
lower ionisation compared with mediansthan mid-latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jul
Speed: 298 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 27200 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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