[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 July 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 20 09:40:18 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z JULY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JULY - 22 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jul: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Jul 21 Jul 22 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 82/23 82/23
COMMENT: Region 1087 has further decreased in size and complexity
and is close to rotating off the disc. It is still producing
mid size B-class X-ray flares and there is a low possibility
of it producing a C-class event. A new region 1089 has rotated
onto the disc, is magnetically simple (beta - not prone to large
faring) and produced a low B-class flare. The solar wind speed
was at avergage levels 300-310 km/sec during the UT day and the
north-south Bz component of the IMF mainly northward, not conducive
to merging with the geomagnetic field. Solar wind parameters
are expected to be nominal over the next three days. The leading
edge of a thin coronal hole will be geoeffective in 2-3 days
with a modest rise in solar wind speed expected.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 11100101
Darwin 1 11100101
Townsville 5 22211212
Learmonth 2 11110110
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 00000000
Casey(Ant) 0 01100000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1000 0112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Jul 5 Quiet
21 Jul 5 Quiet
22 Jul 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activitiy was mostly Quiet at mid, equatorial
and polar latitudes as the solar wind speed was at avergage levelst
300-310 km/sec during the UT day and the north-south Bz component
of the IMF mainly northward, not conducive to merging with the
geomagnetic field. Solar wind parameters are expected to be nominal
over the next three days. The leading edge of a thin coronal
hole will be geoeffective in 2-3 days with a modest rise in solar
wind speed expected and commensurate rise in magnetic activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jul Normal Normal Normal
21 Jul Normal Normal Normal
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Jul 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Jul 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
21 Jul 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
22 Jul 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Nominal conditions with slightly lower ionisation and
maximum frequencies due to the relatively modest EUV radiation
from only two active regions on the disc AR1087 and 1089. Expected
to continue for a couple of days before moderate geomagnetic
activity raises frequencies for 2-3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jul
Speed: 309 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 19900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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