[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 July 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 16 09:30:38 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z JULY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JULY - 18 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jul: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jul 17 Jul 18 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 75/13 74/11
COMMENT: Region 1087 (N19W05) has decreased in size yet continues
to have the potential to produce C-class events. The solar wind
speed increased to 480 km/s before declining to finish the reporting
period around 410 km/s. The north-south component of the IMF began
the period around -12 nT and remained mostly negative, ranging
between about -9/+5 nT. Solar wind parameters are expected to be
slightly disturbed today as the effects of the recurrent coronal hole
pass.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jul: Quiet to active.
An isolated minor storm period at Learmonth and high latitudes.
Estimated Indices 15 Jul : A K
Australian Region 8 42123111
Darwin 7 42112111
Townsville 9 32223222
Learmonth 11 52123111
Canberra 5 31123100
Hobart 7 31124100
Casey(Ant) 12 53222211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jul :
Darwin 5 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 11 1112 2125
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jul 8 Quiet to unsettled
17 Jul 5 Quiet
18 Jul 5 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
17 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
18 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jul 22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly 15-30% depressed. Sporadic E observed 07-08
UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
05-08 UT. Occasional night spread F observed.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
00-01, 06-08 UT; and also at Darwin, 16-19 UT. Night
spread F observed at Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to
40% observed at all stations except Norfolk Is., 12-19
UT. Night spread F observed at Brisbane, Hobart and
Norfolk Is.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to around 05 UT then
depressed to 30%.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
17 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
18 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
COMMENT: Spread F may degrade night circuits.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jul
Speed: 350 km/sec Density: 6.9 p/cc Temp: 67100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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