[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 July 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 17 09:30:52 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z JULY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JULY - 19 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jul: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jul 18 Jul 19 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Region 1087 (N20W19) appears stable in size and has the
slight chance of producing a C-class event. The solar wind speed
ranged between 420 to 380 km/s while the north-south component of
the IMF ranged between +/-5 nT. Solar wind parameters are expected
to be undisturbed over the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 11121101
Darwin 3 11121101
Townsville 5 12222112
Learmonth 3 11122001
Canberra 1 00120000
Hobart 2 00131000
Casey(Ant) 5 22221111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10 4312 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jul 5 Quiet
18 Jul 5 Quiet
19 Jul 5 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
18 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
19 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jul 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 40%
05-07 UT. Depressions to 30% 11-21 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
00, 04, 07-13 and 21-22 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
04-11, 20-21 UT at Darwin. Night spread F observed.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with occasional
depressions to 25%. Enhanced to 20% 11-19 UT at Hobart,
Norfolk Is. and Sydney. Night spread F observed.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with occasional
depressions to 30%.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
18 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
19 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
COMMENT: Spread F may degrade night circuits.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jul
Speed: 444 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 149000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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