[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 July 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 15 09:30:39 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z JULY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JULY - 17 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jul: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jul 16 Jul 17 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: Region 1087 (N21E07) produced two x-ray events, a C1.4
at 1230 UT and a C3 at 2047 UT. The region has the potential
to produce further, isolated C-class events. The solar wind speed
increased from 300 to 450 km/s while the north-south component
of the IMF became disturbed after about 1830 UT, ranging between
+15 to -18 nT. Solar wind parameters are expected to be somewhat
disturbed over the next two days due to the effects of a recurrent
coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jul: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 14 Jul : A K
Australian Region 6 12122123
Darwin 6 12122123
Townsville 7 12222223
Learmonth 6 12122123
Canberra 3 01012112
Hobart 4 01122112
Casey(Ant) 6 13212112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jul :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 7 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 3 2000 0212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jul 10 Quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods
likely.
16 Jul 6 Quiet
17 Jul 6 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
16 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
17 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jul 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly 15-30% depressed.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly 15-30% depressed. Sporadic E 06-07 UT and night
spread F observed.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. Night
spread F observed.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Occasional depressions
to 30%. Night spread F observed.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jul 8 Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
16 Jul 8 Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
17 Jul 8 Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
COMMENT: Spread F may degrade night circuits.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jul
Speed: 319 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 34200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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