[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 July 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 3 09:22:58 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z JULY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JULY - 05 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jul: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jul 04 Jul 05 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 74/11 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low and is expected to remain
so for the next three days. Solar wind speed remained steady
at 600 km/s. IMF Bz fluctuated +/-4nT. Elevated solar wind parameters
are expected to continue for the next day, gradually declining
on days two and three.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 02 Jul : A K
Australian Region 9 22323222
Darwin 7 12322212
Townsville 16 33433333
Learmonth 9 22323222
Canberra 5 11322102
Hobart 6 12322112
Casey(Ant) 13 33233233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jul :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 15 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12 3422 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Jul 5 Quiet
05 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remains elevated under the influence
of a coronal hole wind stream. The regional geomagnetic field
was quiet at low to mid latitudes with an unsettled interval
06-09UT. Conditions were unsettled at high latitudes with isolated
active intervals. Expect occasional unsettled periods day one
with the chance of isolated active periods at high latitudes.
Conditions should gradually decline to quiet days two and three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
04 Jul Normal Normal Normal
05 Jul Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jul 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jul 5 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
04 Jul 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
05 Jul 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUF depressions of up to 30% observed throughout the
region, mainly during local day. Periods of sporadic-E conditions
observed Cocos Islands local evening. Periods of spread-F conditions
observed Hobart and Canberra, especially local evening/night.
Expect continuing MUF depressions throughout the region due to
low EUV/ionisation.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jul
Speed: 625 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 148000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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