[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 July 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 2 09:33:24 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z JULY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JULY - 04 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jul: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jul 03 Jul 04 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low and is expected to remain
so for the next three days. Solar wind speed remained steady
at 650-600 km/s. IMF Bz fluctuated +/-4nT with no sustained periods
of negative bias. Elevated solar wind parameters are expected
to continue for the next two days, gradually declining by day
three.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jul: Quiet to unsettled
with isolated active levels.
Estimated Indices 01 Jul : A K
Australian Region 12 23332332
Darwin 7 22222222
Townsville 15 33333333
Learmonth 13 23333332
Canberra 8 13232221
Hobart 9 23332221
Casey(Ant) 14 33332432
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jul :
Darwin 15 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 20 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 19 5442 3323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remains elevated under the influence
of a coronal hole wind stream. The regional geomagnetic field
was unsettled at all latitudes with isolated active intervals
at higher latitudes, tending to quiet later in the UT day. Expect
continuing unsettled conditions day one with the chance of isolated
active periods at high latitudes. Continuing unsettled conditions
day two declining to quiet to unsettled day three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jul Poor-normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
03 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
04 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jul 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15-20% over the UT day.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 29
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jul 5 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
03 Jul 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
04 Jul 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 15 was issued on 1 July
and is current for interval 1-2 July. MUF depressions of up to
30% observed throughout the region, mainly during local day.
Periods of sporadic-E conditions observed Cocos Islands. Extended
periods of spread-F conditions observed Hobart, especially local
evening/night. Expect continuing MUF depressions throughout the
region due to low EUV/ionisation.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jun
Speed: 652 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 206000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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