[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 June 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 1 09:33:50 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z JUNE 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 01 JULY - 03 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jun: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jul 02 Jul 03 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low and is expected to remain
so for the next three days. Solar wind speed increased over the
first few hours of the UT day to 650-700 km/s. IMF Bz fluctuated
+/-10nT over the same period, then settled to mostly neutral.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jun: Quiet to unsettled
with isolated active levels.
Estimated Indices 30 Jun : A K
Australian Region 12 33333222
Darwin 12 33333222
Townsville 21 44443333
Learmonth 14 33334223
Canberra 7 23332100
Hobart 14 33443212
Casey(Ant) 14 343232-3
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jun :
Darwin 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 69 (Active)
Canberra 20 (Quiet)
Hobart 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11 2322 1134
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jul 12 Unsettled
02 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Solar wind speed increased significantly over the first
few hours of the UT day resulting in unsettled geomagnetic conditions
with isolated active intervals at low to mid latitudes. Isolated
minor storm periods observed at high latitudes. Conditions declined
to quiet to unsettled at low-mid latitudes later in the UT day.
Elevated geomagnetic activity possible day one of the forecast
period with minor storm periods at high latitudes. Coronal hole
wind stream effects should gradually decline days two and three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jun Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
03 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jun 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15%.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jul 15 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
02 Jul 15 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
03 Jul 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable to mildly depressed ionospheric conditions
observed throughout the region due to low EUV ionisation. Periods
of sporadic-E observed Cocos Islands. Generally weak ionospheric
conditions observed Antarctic region. Expect similar conditions
next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jun
Speed: 506 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 156000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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