[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 July 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 4 09:36:08 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z JULY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JULY - 06 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jul: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 74/11
COMMENT: Solar X-ray activity remains very low. NE and SW directed
CME's were observed in association with solar filament activity
during the first half of the UT day. Solar wind speed declined
steadily to 560 km/s. IMF Bz fluctuated +/-4nT with some periods
of sustained southward bias. Solar wind parameters should decline
gradually over the next 1 -2 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 03 Jul : A K
Australian Region 7 23222212
Darwin 5 12121212
Townsville 15 33333333
Learmonth 6 22122212
Canberra 3 12021111
Hobart 5 22131101
Casey(Ant) 12 34322322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jul :
Darwin 12 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 3232 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jul 6 Quiet
05 Jul 5 Quiet
06 Jul 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remains elevated under the influence
of a coronal hole wind stream, but should decline gradually over
the next 1 -2 days. The regional geomagnetic field was quiet
at low to mid latitudes with an unsettled interval 09-12UT at
some stations. Conditions were unsettled at high latitudes with
isolated active intervals. Geomagnetic conditions should decline
steadily during the next day, with isolated unsettled intervals
possible. Expect generally quiet conditions days two and three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jul Fair-normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jul 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jul 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
05 Jul 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
06 Jul 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable MUF depressions of up to 25% observed throughout
the region, mainly during local day. Isolated periods of sporadic-E
conditions observed Cocos Islands local evening and after local
dawn. Periods of spread-F conditions observed Hobart, especially
local evening/night. Expect continuing variable MUF depressions
throughout the region due to low EUV/ionisation.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jul
Speed: 600 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 157000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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