[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 January 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 30 10:40:26 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z JANUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JANUARY - 01 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jan: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jan 31 Jan 01 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 74/11 76/14
COMMENT: The solar wind speed remained below 375 km/s over the
past 24 hours; the interplanetary magnetic field Bz component
ranged between +/-5 nT. Region 1041 (S27 W42) appears stable
while the background x-ray flux level declines. There is only
a slight possibility of this region producing a C-class flare.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jan: Quiet. Mostly
quiet to unsettled at high latitudes.
Estimated Indices 29 Jan : A K
Australian Region 3 21111012
Darwin 2 21110011
Townsville 5 12111023
Learmonth 4 22112002
Canberra 1 01010002
Hobart 2 11110012
Casey(Ant) 8 3-331112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1000 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jan 5 Quiet
31 Jan 5 Quiet
01 Feb 5 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jan Normal Normal Normal
31 Jan Normal Normal Normal
01 Feb Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jan 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 50%
11-17 UT and depressions to 10% 08-09 UT. Sporadic E
observed 06-12, 19 and 21-22 UT.
Niue Island Region:
No data 00-20 UT. Depressed to 25% otherwise.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 35% 07-19
UT and depressions to 30% 03, 06 and 20-21 UT at
Darwin. Depressions to 30% 01-06 and 15-16 UT at
Townsville. Sporadic E observed 05 and 19-23 UT and
night spread F at Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 20%
mostly 00-08 UT. Night spread F at all stations.
Sporadic E observed mostly 00-15 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with occasional
depressions to 20%. No data for Macquarie Is. 05-23
UT.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jan 0 Near predicted monthly values
31 Jan -5 Near predicted monthly values
01 Feb -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressions in MUFs likely as solar flux/activity decreases.
Sporadic E may affect F region communications at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.00E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jan
Speed: 354 km/sec Density: 6.4 p/cc Temp: 55000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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