[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 January 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 29 10:30:57 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z JANUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JANUARY - 31 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jan: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jan 30 Jan 31 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 76/14 76/14
COMMENT: The solar wind speed remained below 400 km/s over the
past 24 hours; the interplanetary magnetic field Bz component
ranged between +/-5 nT. Region 1041 (S26 W32) produced occasional
B-class x-ray events over the past 24 hours. There is only a
slight possibility of this region producing a C-class flare.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jan: Quiet. Quiet to
unsettled at high latitudes.
Estimated Indices 28 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 11122121
Darwin 3 11111121
Townsville 4 11112121
Learmonth 5 21122121
Canberra 1 00011110
Hobart 4 11111221
Casey(Ant) 8 2-332121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs NA
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 2 1001 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jan 5 Quiet
30 Jan 5 Quiet
31 Jan 5 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jan Normal Normal Normal
30 Jan Normal Normal Normal
31 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jan 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 60%
10-20 UT. Sporadic E observed 09-11 UT.
Niue Island Region:
No data.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Occasional depressions
to 15% at Darwin and to 20% at Townsville 01-07 UT.
Enhancements to 45% 08-10, 12-14 and 17-21 UT at
Townsville. Sporadic E observed 09-21 UT at Darwin and
00-02, 04 and 10-12 UT at Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with occasional
depressions to 15% at Brisbane, Hobart and Norfolk Is.
Sporadic E observed 00-15, 19 and 22 UT at Brisbane,
00-07, 14-16, 19 and 22-23 UT at Norfolk Is., 00-02,
11-16 and 19-22 UT at Canberra and Sydney and 00-07,
10-18 and 20-23 UT at Hobart.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
mostly 07-16 and 20-22 UT.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jan 3 Near predicted monthly values
30 Jan 3 Near predicted monthly values
31 Jan 3 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressions in MUFs likely as solar flux/activity
decreases. Sporadic E may affect F region communications at
times, mostly during daylight.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jan
Speed: 346 km/sec Density: 6.7 p/cc Temp: 41400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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