[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 January 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 31 10:32:37 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z JANUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JANUARY - 02 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jan: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Jan 01 Feb 02 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 76/14 78/17
COMMENT: The solar wind speed increased to 440 km/s around 1600
UT and at the time of issue is around 410 km/s. The speed is expected
to decline during the course of the next 24 hours. The interplanetary
magnetic field Bz component ranged between +/-7 nT. Region 1041
(S27 W58) is decaying. New region 1043 is located at N27 E35.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jan: Quiet to unsettled.
Isolated active levels at high latitudes.
Estimated Indices 30 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 22112213
Darwin 7 -2112223
Townsville 6 22111223
Learmonth 6 31122212
Canberra 2 12001102
Hobart 6 23112212
Casey(Ant) 11 3--32223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 2 0001 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Jan 5 Quiet
01 Feb 5 Quiet
02 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Isolated unsettled levels possible.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jan Normal Normal Normal
01 Feb Normal Normal Normal
02 Feb Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jan 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
08-11 UT. Some night spread F. Sporadic E observed
10-18 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 45%
03-05 UT. Some night spread F. Sporadic E observed
04-06, 11-20 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values, no data 00-04 UT at
Darwin. Depressions to 25% 06, 14, 17-18 and 21 UT at
Darwin and 02-06 and 14 UT at Townsville. Sporadic E
observed 00-05, 07-08 and 20-22 UT and some night
spread F observed at Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions mostly to
15% 00-09 UT. Night spread F observed at all stations.
Sporadic E observed mostly 00-12 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with occasional
depressions to 20%.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Jan 3 Near predicted monthly values
01 Feb 3 Near predicted monthly values
02 Feb 3 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressions in MUFs to 25% likely at times. Sporadic
E may affect F region communications at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jan
Speed: 343 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 65600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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