[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 January 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 25 10:43:13 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z JANUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JANUARY - 27 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jan: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jan 26 Jan 27 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 86/29 87/30
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with
only low level B-class flare events. Solar wind speed was
approximately 360km/s over the UT day. The Interplanetary magnetic
field Bz component ranged between +/-4nT over the UT day, with
sustained southward periods throughout the UT day. Solar activity
is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days with possible
C-class events and a small chance of an isolated M-class event.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 24 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 11231111
Darwin 4 11121112
Townsville 4 12121111
Learmonth 5 21131111
Canberra 2 01121000
Hobart 6 12232211
Casey(Ant) 10 3-332222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2122 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jan 6 Quiet
26 Jan 6 Quiet
27 Jan 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the
last 24 hours with Unsettled conditions for high latitudes. Mostly
Quiet conditions expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jan 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jan 5 near predicted monthly values
26 Jan 5 near predicted monthly values
27 Jan 5 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions observed for most regions
over the last 24 hours. Enhanced periods during local day for
Equatorial regions and continued disturbed periods for Antarctic
regions from Unsettled geomagnetic conditions. Some sporadic
E effects observed at Northern AUS/Equatorial regions. Mostly
normal ionospheric support expected for the next 3 days with
possible disturbed periods for Antarctic regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jan
Speed: 358 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 32100 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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