[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 January 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 24 10:54:21 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z JANUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JANUARY - 26 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jan: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Jan 25 Jan 26 Jan
Activity Low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 86/29 87/30
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was Very Low with
only low level B-class flare events. Solar wind speed decreased
from ~380km/s at 0200UT to be ~340km/s at the time of this report.
The Interplanetary magnetic field Bz component ranged between
+3nT and -4nT over the UT day, with sustained southward periods
of -3nT between 00UT-12UT and 15UT-23UT. Solar activity is expected
to be Very Low to Low for the next 3 days with possible C-class
events and the slight chance of an isolated M-class event.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 11122111
Darwin 3 11121111
Townsville 4 11122111
Learmonth 3 20022101
Canberra 1 00121000
Hobart 4 12122111
Casey(Ant) 8 3-322112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jan :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1100 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Jan 6 Quiet
25 Jan 6 Quiet
26 Jan 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours with Unsettled periods for high latitudes. Mostly
Quiet conditions expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jan Normal Normal Normal
25 Jan Normal Normal Normal
26 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Jan 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Jan 5 near predicted monthly values
25 Jan 5 near predicted monthly values
26 Jan 5 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions observed for most regions
over the last 24 hours. Depressed conditions during local day
for Equatorial regions and disturbed periods for Antarctic regions
from Unsettled geomagnetic conditions. Continued sporadic E effects
observed at Northern AUS/Equatorial and Southern AUS/NZ regions.
Mostly normal ionospheric support expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jan
Speed: 416 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 59600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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